Iran war like wrestling with gator

Two friends of mine who once wrestled a gator realized they needed an exit strategy – kind of like the U.S. in Iran.

First, questions need answers. History can provide some perspective.

• What efforts were made to form a coalition with U.S. allies? President Trump has blamed NATO for not being more supportive. What was the effort beforehand to line up support? What about with Iran’s neighbors?
• What is the ultimate goal? Is it denying Iran nuclear weapons or ensuring the flow of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz?  Has there been a shift?  Both are equal goals now.
• Were the president and his advisors seduced by the awesome air power of Operation Epic Fury hitting nuclear sites? Technology makes it look easy. He is reluctant to put boots on the ground, saying Americans “don’t have the stomach” for possible higher casualty rates.

In the meantime, air crews, supplies and planes are being stretched and tested, especially older planes like the F-15. The aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln has spent 260 days at sea without shore leave. The Pentagon insists that it has not affected combat readiness.

• Are negotiations, which are based on ceasefires, working? The president repeatedly said “we’re close,” but the Memo of Understanding has elapsed.  

Did the president, famous for his deal-making skills, underestimate the ruthlessness, fanaticism and credibility of the Iranians? This is the nation, after all, that raided the U.S. embassy in 1979 and held the staffers hostage for 444 days. And it is same nation that has killed Americans and tried to kill Trump

Who benefits from the ceasefires? Clearly the Iranians, who have been pounded by air strikes. They can take the opportunity to move their mobile missile launchers and restock war materials during the breaks.

What are the lessons from history?

President George H. Bush successfully built a powerful coalition during Desert Storm after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. The initial mission was accomplished quickly in part because the goal was limited.

The later war against Iraq blew up in President George W. Bush’s face when U.S. troops did not meet the goal of locating supposed weapons of mass destruction.  The 9/11 terror attacks led to years of combat in Afghanistan.

Several ceasefires were initiated in Vietnam, the most disastrous was the Tet Offensive in January 1968.  

The communists hoped it would spark a civilian uprising. It did not, and their troops were defeated but the shock waves turned Americans against the war. North Vietnam lost the battle but won the war because of it.  

Experts say the Iranians are trying to drag things out until the midterm elections with the same goal of diminishing the U.S. will to fight.

Are the goals worthwhile? Certainly no one in their right mind thinks the fanatical regime should have a nuke. Regaining control of the strait is its last chance at bullying the world’s oil market.

Is appeasement the answer? President Obama tried it with an agreement that guaranteed Iran would have nuclear capability within a few years. To sweeten the deal, he delivered a pallet of cash, which the regime used to help finance its terrorist proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

Appeasement never works with authoritarians like the Ayatollah. One has only to recall the famous film clip of British Prime Minster Neville Chamberlain holding up a piece of paper with Hitler’s worthless promises and saying, “Peace in our time.” World War II followed almost immediately.

The biggest question is, what’s next?

Trump won election to the White House in part because he promised no more “forever wars,” but he’s latched on to an alligator and can’t figure out how to let go.